Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
